Robert Williams
If you’re enrolled in a standalone Medicare Part D drug plan, you may have opened the news this week and felt your stomach drop a little. That’s a completely understandable reaction. On July 28, 2026, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, known as CMS, announced it is ending the Part D Premium Stabilization Demonstration after December 31, 2026. That program, which cost $9.8 billion across 2025 and 2026, has been quietly shielding roughly 25 million people in standalone drug plans from premium increases that would otherwise have hit much harder. Now that shield is going away, and open enrollment starts October 15. There’s a real gap between now and when you’ll actually know what your 2027 plan costs.
Let me explain what this means for you in plain terms, what the numbers look like so far, and what you can actually do right now while you’re waiting for final prices.
According to a KFF analysis published July 29, 2026, approximately 45% of standalone Part D enrollees are projected to see monthly premium increases of $11 to $20 for 2027. About 25% could see premiums stay flat or even drop. A February 2026 GAO report found something sobering: without this kind of subsidy program, beneficiaries who stayed in their 2024 plan would have seen their monthly premiums nearly double. That context matters a lot when you’re trying to figure out how worried to be.
- CMS ended the $9.8 billion Part D Premium Stabilization Demonstration on July 28, 2026, effective after 2026.
- About 45% of Part D enrollees face monthly premium increases of $11–$20 in 2027.
- The 2027 base beneficiary premium rises to $41.33/month, up from $38.99 in 2026.
- Final 2027 plan premiums won't be published until mid-to-late September 2026.
- Open enrollment opens October 15, giving you a narrow window to compare and switch.
What the Numbers Actually Tell Us Right Now
The figure CMS has released so far is the national average monthly bid amount, which is what insurers are projecting it will cost to provide Part D benefits. That number is $296.05 for 2027, up about 24% from $239.27 in 2026. The base beneficiary premium, which is calculated from that bid amount, rises to $41.33 per month from $38.99. These are averages and baselines, not what any specific plan will charge you.
Here’s a side-by-side look at what’s changing at the national level:
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| National avg. monthly bid amount | $239.27 | $296.05 | +24% |
| Base beneficiary premium | $38.99/mo | $41.33/mo | +$2.34/mo |
| Premium Stabilization subsidy | Active ($9.8B total) | Ended | Gone |
| Projected enrollees seeing $11–$20 increase | N/A | ~45% | , |
| Projected enrollees seeing flat or lower premiums | N/A | ~25% | , |
What CMS has not released yet is what your specific plan will charge. Those individual plan premiums won’t be published until mid-to-late September 2026, according to the NPR report from July 29. That’s a frustratingly short runway before October 15 opens enrollment. It means right now, no one, not your insurance agent, not your plan’s customer service line, can tell you your 2027 premium with certainty.
Why the Subsidy Existed and Why It’s Ending
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You might be wondering what this demonstration program actually was. The Part D Premium Stabilization Demonstration was put in place to cushion a specific problem: the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 made major changes to how Part D works, including a new $2,000 out-of-pocket cap and a restructured catastrophic phase. Those changes shifted costs in ways that caused insurers to raise their bids significantly. The subsidy program was designed to absorb enough of that increase to prevent beneficiaries from seeing immediate shock at the premium level.
The Trump administration’s decision to end it, announced alongside the July 28 CMS fact sheet, reflects a different view of who should absorb those costs. Here’s what I tell people when they ask whether this was a good or bad decision: that’s a policy debate, and reasonable people disagree. What matters for you right now is the practical effect on your wallet.
The GAO’s February 2026 findings are the clearest way to understand the stakes. Premiums for people who stayed in the same plan from 2024 would have nearly doubled without subsidization. The 2027 increases projected now are real but smaller than that, partly because insurers have had more time to adjust their business models, and partly because some of the structural changes from 2022 have settled in.
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Not everyone in Part D is in the same situation, and that matters.
If you’re in a Medicare Advantage plan, which is the all-in-one alternative to original Medicare, your drug coverage is usually bundled in. The standalone Part D market, those separate drug plans that pair with original Medicare, is where the 25 million enrollees affected by this change are concentrated. If you’re not sure which you have, check your red, white, and blue Medicare card. If you use it at the pharmacy along with a separate drug plan card, you’re in standalone Part D.
People with lower incomes may have additional protection worth knowing about. The Extra Help program, also called the Low-Income Subsidy (LIS), helps people with limited income and resources pay Part D premiums and cost-sharing. If your income is at or near 150% of the federal poverty level, it’s worth checking whether you qualify. You can apply through the Social Security Administration at ssa.gov or get help from your State Health Insurance Assistance Program (SHIP), which offers free, unbiased counseling.
What You Can Do Before October 15
The honest answer is that your options right now are limited in one specific way: you cannot compare 2027 plan prices yet. But there are things worth doing now so you’re ready the moment those prices drop in September.
Start by writing down what you pay now and what drugs you take, including dosage and frequency. Drug formularies, which are the lists of medications each plan covers, change every year, and a plan that works well for you in 2026 may cover your medications differently in 2027. That list will be your comparison tool when prices are released.
Mark your calendar for mid-to-late September and plan to use Medicare’s Plan Finder tool at Medicare.gov as soon as 2027 plan data is loaded. That tool lets you enter your specific medications and your pharmacy and compare total estimated costs across all available plans in your area. Total cost, not just the monthly premium, is what you’re shopping for.
Open enrollment runs October 15 through December 7, 2026. Any changes you make take effect January 1, 2027. You don’t have to stick with your current plan, and given what’s happening with premiums this year, it’s worth doing the comparison even if you’ve been happy with your coverage.
If this all feels like a lot, your local SHIP counselor can walk through it with you at no cost. Find your state’s SHIP at shiphelp.org.
The situation this fall is genuinely more complicated than most enrollment seasons, and the uncertainty isn’t your fault. Final plan prices dropping in September and enrollment opening two weeks later is a tight window. The best thing you can do is go in prepared, and talk to a licensed counselor or your SHIP program if you want someone in your corner.
Sources
- CMS – Medicare Part D 2027 National Average Monthly Bid Amount (Fact Sheet) (July 28, 2026)
- Reuters / US News – Trump Administration Plans to End Medicare Drug Plan Subsidy (July 28, 2026)
- KFF – CMS’s Decision to End Temporary Subsidies Could Mean Larger Premium Increases (July 29, 2026)
- Medical Daily – Medicare to End Premium Stabilization Program for Standalone Drug Plans (July 29, 2026)
- NPR – End to Medicare Part D Subsidies Could Raise Premiums Next Year (July 29, 2026)
- InsuranceNewsNet – CMS Will Discontinue Part D Subsidies for 2027 (July 29, 2026)
Photo: https://kaboompics.com/ via Pexels
This article is for informational purposes only. Medicare rules change annually. Always verify current plan details at Medicare.gov or by calling 1-800-MEDICARE (1-800-633-4227). This site does not sell insurance or recommend specific plans.
Recommended Resources
Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate, we earn a small commission from qualifying purchases at no extra cost to you. We only recommend products that genuinely support the topics covered in this article.
- Medicare For Dummies (~$22), The definitive consumer guide to Medicare, enrollment windows, Part A/B/C/D, and supplement plans.
- Get What’s Yours for Medicare (~$17), Maximize your Medicare benefits and minimize out-of-pocket costs. Covers Part D drug coverage gaps and Medigap in depth.
- Get What’s Yours for Medicare (Original) (~$15), The original bestselling guide to navigating Medicare and Social Security timing, over 100,000 copies sold.
